Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 65.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 61.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Matthews
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Matthews
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
52.5% (570)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
54.5% (145)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
44.4% (36)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Matthews
Pavelski
Home
60.7% (572)
55.0% (391)
Away
52.4% (657)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Matthews
Pavelski
P1
60.3%
50.8%
P2
55.6%
55.0%
P3
53.3%
52.0%
OT
45.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |