Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Rooney shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Rooney 47.8% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 69.2%
Defensive zone
Rooney 65.6%
Neutral zone
Rooney 53.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Matthews
Rooney
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Rooney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Rooney
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rooney
0
1
Matthews
Rooney
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Rooney
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
47.0% (319)
+11.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
57.1% (7)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
47.1% (87)
+3.6%
On even strength, Matthews has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rooney shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Rooney is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Matthews
Rooney
Home
59.1% (528)
45.8% (203)
Away
55.1% (695)
48.6% (210)
By Period
Matthews
Rooney
P1
56.2%
47.2%
P2
58.1%
55.0%
P3
56.4%
37.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Rooney
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Kevin Rooney |