Auston Matthews vs Michael Rasmussen
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Rasmussen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Rasmussen 47.8% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 86.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 82.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 87.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Matthews
Rasmussen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Rasmussen
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Rasmussen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Rasmussen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rasmussen
0
1
Matthews
Rasmussen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Rasmussen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Rasmussen
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
46.8% (248)
+13.0%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
62.5% (8)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
43.8% (16)
+12.5%
On even strength, Matthews has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rasmussen shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Rasmussen is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Matthews
Rasmussen
Home
60.0% (520)
50.0% (98)
Away
59.3% (452)
45.4% (174)
By Period
Matthews
Rasmussen
P1
60.2%
40.2%
P2
58.2%
55.8%
P3
60.4%
43.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Rasmussen
32.0%▼
43.0%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Michael Rasmussen |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Michael Rasmussen |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:12 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |