Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Paul 50.4% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 70.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 82.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 68.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Matthews
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Matthews
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
53.0% (644)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
37.5% (24)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
42.9% (177)
+7.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
60.7% (572)
52.5% (516)
Away
52.4% (657)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
60.3%
47.6%
P2
55.6%
48.4%
P3
53.3%
54.5%
OT
45.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 18:44 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |