Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Paul 53.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 54.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Matthews
Paul
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
Paul
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Matthews
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
4
Matthews
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
53.1% (710)
+0.3%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.3% (199)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
58.0% (69)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
56.5% (703)
56.0% (466)
Away
50.0% (616)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
52.1%
57.2%
P2
54.0%
54.9%
P3
54.0%
51.5%
OT
57.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 07:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:29 | Neutral | Nick Paul |