Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Paul 50.0% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 81.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 81.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 76.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Paul
Last 5: Matthews 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Matthews
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
48.8% (666)
+9.5%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
53.8% (65)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
60.0% (55)
-9.3%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
59.1% (528)
49.7% (348)
Away
55.1% (695)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
56.2%
51.0%
P2
58.1%
47.4%
P3
56.4%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |