Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hischier on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hischier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Hischier 54.9% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Hischier leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hischier 68.8%
Defensive zone
Hischier 69.7%
Neutral zone
Hischier 68.5%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
Matthews
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Matthews
Hischier
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Hischier
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
0
6
Matthews
Hischier
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hischier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
55.0% (1,107)
+4.8%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
63.1% (252)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
43.6% (149)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Hischier is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (977).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hischier
Home
60.0% (520)
56.5% (763)
Away
59.3% (452)
54.0% (745)
By Period
Matthews
Hischier
P1
60.2%
56.0%
P2
58.2%
57.6%
P3
60.4%
53.0%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Hischier
50.0%▼
56.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:12 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |