Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Bäck 51.3% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bäck 57.0%
Defensive zone
Bäck 62.0%
Neutral zone
Bäck 59.5%
Result
Oskar Bäck favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Matthews
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Bäck
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Bäck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
0
2
Matthews
Bäck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
55.9% (143)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
33.3% (30)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Bäck is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (93).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bäck
Home
59.1% (528)
47.6% (82)
Away
55.1% (695)
56.0% (91)
By Period
Matthews
Bäck
P1
56.2%
54.3%
P2
58.1%
48.1%
P3
56.4%
56.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 01:06 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |