Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Bäck 50.5% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 69.6%
Defensive zone
Bäck 76.7%
Neutral zone
Bäck 54.8%
Result
Oskar Bäck favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Matthews
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Bäck
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Bäck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
0
2
Matthews
Bäck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
54.8% (186)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
31.7% (41)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Bäck is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Matthews
Bäck
Home
56.3% (5,065)
52.4% (103)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
49.2% (124)
By Period
Matthews
Bäck
P1
55.5%
51.5%
P2
53.3%
50.0%
P3
52.8%
50.8%
Final 5 min
54.1%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 01:06 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |