Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Johnson 50.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 76.3%
Defensive zone
Johnson 87.7%
Neutral zone
Johnson 61.5%
Result
Reese Johnson favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Matthews
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Johnson
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
3
Matthews
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.0% (196)
+5.3%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
50.0% (2)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
42.9% (14)
+7.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Johnson is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Matthews
Johnson
Home
60.7% (572)
48.8% (125)
Away
52.4% (657)
52.9% (87)
By Period
Matthews
Johnson
P1
60.3%
54.2%
P2
55.6%
44.2%
P3
53.3%
54.8%
OT
45.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2021 | OT | 01:41 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |