Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 53.1%). Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Johnson 52.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 80.5%
Defensive zone
Johnson 72.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 50.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Matthews
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Matthews
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
55.4% (186)
-2.7%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
100.0% (3)
-65.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
37.8% (37)
+37.2%
On power play, Johnson has a +65.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Johnson is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Matthews
Johnson
Home
54.8% (515)
51.6% (95)
Away
50.2% (534)
54.2% (131)
By Period
Matthews
Johnson
P1
54.4%
46.7%
P2
50.4%
50.5%
P3
51.8%
58.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 15:31 | Offensive | Reese Johnson |