Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Johnson 50.8% (+1.5%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 66.4%
Defensive zone
Johnson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 54.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Matthews
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
56.9% (51)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
43.3% (30)
-1.4%
On even strength, Johnson has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Johnson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Matthews
Johnson
Home
56.5% (703)
56.3% (32)
Away
50.0% (616)
49.0% (49)
By Period
Matthews
Johnson
P1
52.1%
55.6%
P2
54.0%
48.0%
P3
54.0%
51.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
51.9%