Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.1%). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Johansen 52.8% (+0.3%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 58.8%
Defensive zone
Johansen 54.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 53.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Matthews
Johansen
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.9% (597)
+1.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.9% (133)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
54.3% (81)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Matthews
Johansen
Home
56.5% (703)
55.8% (387)
Away
50.0% (616)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Matthews
Johansen
P1
52.1%
50.0%
P2
54.0%
56.2%
P3
54.0%
52.6%
OT
57.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%