Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Zegras 43.3% (+15.0%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 50.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 64.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Matthews
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
39.8% (128)
+13.6%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
22.2% (9)
+43.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
0.0% (1)
+41.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +43.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
56.5% (703)
29.7% (74)
Away
50.0% (616)
48.4% (64)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
52.1%
40.7%
P2
54.0%
35.1%
P3
54.0%
41.0%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.4%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
38.4%