Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +23.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 57.9% vs Zegras 40.4% (+23.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 68.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 81.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 55.2%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Matthews
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (715)
33.6% (143)
+25.0%
Power Play
65.7% (35)
39.0% (41)
+26.7%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (71)
100.0% (1)
-42.3%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +42.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 34.7% vs left-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
60.0% (475)
31.6% (98)
Away
57.2% (346)
39.1% (87)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
58.3%
38.9%
P2
58.4%
38.0%
P3
59.4%
27.1%
OT
70.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
29.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
58.8%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |