Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +29.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Zegras 35.4% (+29.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 64.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 70.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Matthews
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Matthews
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
29.6% (230)
+30.2%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
32.1% (56)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
100.0% (1)
-43.7%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zegras
Home
60.0% (520)
30.6% (147)
Away
59.3% (452)
30.0% (140)
By Period
Matthews
Zegras
P1
60.2%
33.0%
P2
58.2%
31.7%
P3
60.4%
25.6%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
29.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |