Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 72.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 82.3%
Neutral zone
Hayton 75.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Hayton
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hayton
Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Hayton
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
45.5% (661)
+7.0%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
46.3% (82)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
33.3% (84)
+3.5%
On power play, Hayton has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Hayton
Carlsson
Home
56.9% (432)
42.5% (428)
Away
47.4% (344)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Hayton
Carlsson
P1
53.1%
45.4%
P2
50.3%
39.7%
P3
55.4%
48.5%
OT
25.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
59.5%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |