Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 89.3%
Defensive zone
Hayton 94.8%
Neutral zone
Hayton 94.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Hayton
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
5
(21 meetings)
16
5
Hayton
Carlsson
Last 10: Hayton 7-3 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
6
2
Hayton
Carlsson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
5
3
Hayton
Carlsson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
5
0
Hayton
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
41.0% (1,844)
+9.8%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
42.9% (154)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
35.0% (120)
+10.2%
On power play, Hayton has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Hayton shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Hayton
Carlsson
Home
52.9% (2,268)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Hayton
Carlsson
P1
52.0%
43.3%
P2
51.4%
36.5%
P3
49.9%
43.2%
OT
58.1%
40.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 14:51 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |