Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Carlsson 42.4% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Hayton leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 91.5%
Defensive zone
Hayton 89.6%
Neutral zone
Hayton 90.1%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 90.5%
90.5%
9.5%
Hayton
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Hayton
Carlsson
Last 10: Hayton 7-3 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
5
1
Hayton
Carlsson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Hayton
Carlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
41.8% (648)
+10.8%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
37.3% (51)
+26.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
38.7% (31)
+14.4%
On power play, Hayton has a +26.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Hayton
Carlsson
Home
53.9% (516)
44.5% (362)
Away
54.4% (504)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Hayton
Carlsson
P1
55.1%
46.3%
P2
55.0%
35.1%
P3
51.7%
43.9%
OT
69.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 04:36 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:15 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 02:41 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |