Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 53.1%). Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 59.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 58.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Hayton
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hayton
Monahan
Last 6: Hayton 4-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
1
Hayton
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
53.2% (823)
-0.7%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
55.3% (159)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
48.4% (95)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Hayton
Monahan
Home
56.9% (432)
54.6% (529)
Away
47.4% (344)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Hayton
Monahan
P1
53.1%
49.0%
P2
50.3%
55.4%
P3
55.4%
53.6%
OT
25.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
59.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 08:52 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |