Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayton on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Gourde 46.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 89.6%
Defensive zone
Hayton 60.0%
Neutral zone
Hayton 76.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Hayton
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Hayton
Gourde
Last 8: Hayton 7-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
4
1
Hayton
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
47.2% (654)
+5.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
45.0% (20)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
32.2% (87)
+4.6%
On power play, Hayton has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Hayton
Gourde
Home
56.9% (432)
44.1% (322)
Away
47.4% (344)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Hayton
Gourde
P1
53.1%
42.4%
P2
50.3%
49.8%
P3
55.4%
44.3%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:25 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |