Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Gourde 49.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 64.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 63.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 53.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Hayton
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Hayton
Gourde
Last 9: Hayton 4-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Hayton
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Hayton
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
51.2% (469)
+1.4%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
42.9% (21)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
37.5% (48)
+15.6%
On power play, Hayton has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Hayton shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Hayton
Gourde
Home
53.9% (516)
47.8% (301)
Away
54.4% (504)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Hayton
Gourde
P1
55.1%
47.3%
P2
55.0%
53.4%
P3
51.7%
48.6%
OT
69.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:49 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:53 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |