Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Guentzel 47.4% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 90.7%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 84.7%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 51.7%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Lizotte
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lizotte
Guentzel
Last 5: Lizotte 2-3 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
3
Lizotte
Guentzel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
49.0% (200)
+3.9%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
42.3% (111)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
45.8% (24)
-2.7%
On power play, Guentzel has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Lizotte is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Lizotte shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Guentzel
Home
44.2% (242)
48.8% (166)
Away
56.0% (234)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Lizotte
Guentzel
P1
49.6%
46.7%
P2
46.9%
48.5%
P3
52.6%
44.3%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |