Scouting Report
Blake Lizotte holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Guentzel 46.3% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 85.1%
Defensive zone
Lizotte 78.2%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 63.4%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Lizotte
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Lizotte
Guentzel
Last 6: Lizotte 2-4 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
3
Lizotte
Guentzel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
Guentzel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
46.3% (685)
+5.3%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
45.7% (291)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
42.9% (42)
-0.6%
On even strength, Lizotte has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Guentzel
Home
49.5% (1,840)
48.3% (544)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Lizotte
Guentzel
P1
48.0%
47.8%
P2
52.3%
45.2%
P3
50.5%
45.3%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.2%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |