Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.0% vs Carrick 53.7% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 86.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 61.0%
Neutral zone
Carrick 72.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Lizotte
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Lizotte
Carrick
Last 9: Lizotte 8-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
4
0
Lizotte
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
4
1
Lizotte
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (342)
54.9% (428)
-2.0%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
66.7% (3)
-41.7%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (130)
50.0% (50)
-6.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lizotte is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Lizotte shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Carrick
Home
44.2% (242)
58.2% (225)
Away
56.0% (234)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Lizotte
Carrick
P1
49.6%
55.2%
P2
46.9%
52.8%
P3
52.6%
55.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.0%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:32 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:24 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 05:30 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |