Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lizotte wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 47.5% vs Carrick 53.0% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 73.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 92.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 79.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 79.1%
20.9%
79.1%
Lizotte
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Lizotte
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
3
0
Lizotte
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (313)
53.9% (521)
-6.0%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
57.1% (35)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
51.5% (229)
-10.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lizotte is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Lizotte shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Carrick
Home
48.8% (170)
52.7% (408)
Away
45.1% (195)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Lizotte
Carrick
P1
44.4%
51.4%
P2
53.3%
56.6%
P3
43.0%
52.1%
Final 5 min
43.0%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |