Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Wheeler on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 46.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Wheeler leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 89.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 77.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 75.4%
24.6%
75.4%
Wheeler
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Wheeler
Larkin
Last 10: Wheeler 6-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
8
2
Wheeler
Larkin
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Wheeler
Larkin
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Wheeler
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (1,369)
51.7% (9,019)
-5.0%
Power Play
46.9% (207)
58.5% (2,125)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (129)
50.2% (1,122)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Wheeler is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,172).
Wheeler shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Larkin
Home
47.5% (883)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
44.2% (822)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Wheeler
Larkin
P1
45.0%
52.7%
P2
48.2%
53.1%
P3
44.5%
52.1%
OT
37.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
42.4%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
45.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 04:29 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 06:44 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |