Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 57.6% vs Kelly 43.9% (+15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 74.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 88.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 71.6%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Horvat
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Horvat
Kelly
Last 6: Horvat 2-4 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Horvat
Kelly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
2
Horvat
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (987)
44.8% (556)
+13.8%
Power Play
60.6% (251)
0.0% (2)
+60.6%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (81)
36.8% (144)
+8.9%
On power play, Horvat has a +60.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Horvat is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Horvat shoots left. Kelly is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Horvat
Kelly
Home
59.2% (684)
44.8% (368)
Away
57.0% (635)
41.0% (334)
By Period
Horvat
Kelly
P1
57.9%
46.7%
P2
55.4%
48.0%
P3
61.5%
34.8%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.9%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
58.2%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |