Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Horvat wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Kelly 41.4% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 56.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 76.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 76.7%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Horvat
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Horvat
Kelly
Last 7: Horvat 2-5 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
1
0
Horvat
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
3
Horvat
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
2
Horvat
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,417)
41.6% (722)
+12.3%
Power Play
61.1% (2,637)
0.0% (3)
+61.1%
Penalty Kill
47.0% (1,476)
36.5% (170)
+10.5%
On power play, Horvat has a +61.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Horvat is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,575).
Horvat shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (601).
Home / Away
Horvat
Kelly
Home
56.0% (8,277)
42.2% (457)
Away
52.9% (8,254)
38.6% (438)
By Period
Horvat
Kelly
P1
54.1%
41.5%
P2
54.4%
44.9%
P3
54.9%
35.1%
OT
50.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
34.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
42.0%▼
53.5%
54.4%
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |