Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Horvat on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.3% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 52.7% vs Toffoli 46.1% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 58.5%
Defensive zone
Horvat 73.4%
Neutral zone
Horvat 54.3%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Horvat
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Horvat
Toffoli
Last 6: Horvat 3-3 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
2
Horvat
Toffoli
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Toffoli
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Horvat
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (955)
40.4% (47)
+10.3%
Power Play
65.3% (213)
33.3% (6)
+32.0%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (57)
0.0% (1)
+43.9%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +43.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Horvat is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Horvat shoots left. Toffoli is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (35).
Home / Away
Horvat
Toffoli
Home
54.1% (599)
48.0% (25)
Away
51.8% (626)
31.0% (29)
By Period
Horvat
Toffoli
P1
50.8%
36.4%
P2
50.0%
50.0%
P3
57.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
52.9%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 23, 2021 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 12:18 | Neutral | Tyler Toffoli |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |