Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jenner wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 54.4% vs Carrick 49.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 53.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 87.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 69.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Jenner
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Jenner
Carrick
Last 5: Jenner 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jenner
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Jenner
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (999)
49.2% (307)
+5.0%
Power Play
60.0% (240)
66.7% (6)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (147)
48.2% (56)
+1.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Jenner is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Jenner shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Jenner
Carrick
Home
56.7% (693)
50.3% (175)
Away
52.7% (693)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Jenner
Carrick
P1
57.1%
41.0%
P2
54.1%
51.2%
P3
53.0%
55.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 04:04 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |