Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.4%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jenner wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Carrick 53.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jenner 71.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 72.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Jenner
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Jenner
Carrick
Last 6: Jenner 2-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
2
0
Jenner
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Jenner
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (775)
53.9% (521)
+0.6%
Power Play
59.1% (198)
57.1% (35)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (140)
51.5% (229)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Jenner is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Jenner shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Jenner
Carrick
Home
52.9% (512)
52.7% (408)
Away
55.4% (601)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Jenner
Carrick
P1
55.0%
51.4%
P2
54.5%
56.6%
P3
53.6%
52.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 07:43 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:21 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |