Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Nelson 50.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 79.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 86.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
50.7% (879)
+6.1%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
58.6% (162)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.4% (198)
+56.6%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +56.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
50.4% (121)
52.3% (621)
Away
67.3% (113)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
57.1%
48.4%
P2
60.0%
53.5%
P3
58.3%
50.3%
OT
66.7%
41.2%
Final 5 min
55.3%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |