Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.4%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Nelson 49.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 81.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 88.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
49.9% (840)
-4.5%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
52.8% (89)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
28.6% (35)
+71.4%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
51.1% (233)
49.8% (458)
Away
49.0% (202)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
42.9%
50.1%
P2
52.2%
45.4%
P3
53.7%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.8%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |