Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Nelson 45.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 85.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 63.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
46.1% (735)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
34.5% (29)
+23.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
30.4% (23)
-30.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
56.0% (175)
48.7% (419)
Away
49.8% (205)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
55.0%
44.6%
P2
51.9%
47.3%
P3
47.3%
43.0%
OT
77.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |