Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Nelson 47.5% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 82.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Tkachuk
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tkachuk
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Tkachuk
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
46.9% (915)
+0.6%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
57.4% (94)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
25.0% (28)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Nelson
Home
49.9% (389)
48.9% (521)
Away
46.8% (376)
45.5% (516)
By Period
Tkachuk
Nelson
P1
44.4%
45.9%
P2
51.8%
48.0%
P3
47.8%
48.0%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.3%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 18:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 03:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |