Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Ryan 50.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 93.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 57.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Tkachuk
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Tkachuk
Ryan
Last 8: Tkachuk 5-3 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Ryan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
3
Tkachuk
Ryan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
50.9% (344)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
75.0% (4)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
45.3% (86)
-32.8%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Ryan
Home
49.9% (389)
53.7% (214)
Away
46.8% (376)
46.4% (220)
By Period
Tkachuk
Ryan
P1
44.4%
45.0%
P2
51.8%
50.0%
P3
47.8%
54.6%
Final 5 min
44.3%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |