Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Ryan 54.6% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 92.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 52.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Tkachuk
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Tkachuk
Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Ryan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Tkachuk
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
60.8% (263)
-12.9%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
100.0% (1)
-42.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
46.2% (145)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Ryan
Home
56.0% (175)
56.7% (201)
Away
49.8% (205)
54.8% (208)
By Period
Tkachuk
Ryan
P1
55.0%
56.7%
P2
51.9%
56.8%
P3
47.3%
53.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |