Brady Tkachuk vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Pageau 55.0% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 87.1%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 66.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Tkachuk
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Tkachuk
Pageau
Last 7: Tkachuk 2-5 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
4
Tkachuk
Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Tkachuk
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
57.1% (905)
-9.2%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
55.2% (116)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
48.0% (204)
-48.0%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +48.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Pageau
Home
56.0% (175)
57.0% (618)
Away
49.8% (205)
53.9% (607)
By Period
Tkachuk
Pageau
P1
55.0%
54.4%
P2
51.9%
61.0%
P3
47.3%
51.0%
OT
77.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | OT | 03:17 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2024 | OT | 03:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |