Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Carter 53.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 95.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 59.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 64.6%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Tkachuk
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Tkachuk
Carter
Last 10: Tkachuk 2-8 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
7
1
Tkachuk
Carter
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
11
Tkachuk
Carter
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
53.3% (8,728)
-4.3%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
57.3% (1,554)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
46.3% (1,087)
-1.3%
On power play, Carter has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carter
Home
50.7% (1,428)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carter
P1
49.4%
53.6%
P2
51.3%
52.8%
P3
49.3%
53.1%
OT
57.1%
56.5%
Final 5 min
46.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:16 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |