Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Carter 56.4% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 83.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 96.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 64.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Tkachuk
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Tkachuk
Carter
Last 10: Tkachuk 6-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Carter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
4
Tkachuk
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (183)
57.9% (885)
-12.5%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
61.7% (133)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
45.4% (119)
+54.6%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +54.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Tkachuk is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (198).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carter
Home
51.1% (233)
58.2% (543)
Away
49.0% (202)
55.9% (594)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carter
P1
42.9%
57.5%
P2
52.2%
57.1%
P3
53.7%
55.8%
OT
50.0%
68.2%
Final 5 min
43.8%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |