Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Carter 58.5% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 98.3%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 58.6%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 82.9%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Tkachuk
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Tkachuk
Carter
Last 8: Tkachuk 1-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
7
Tkachuk
Carter
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
59.7% (727)
-12.2%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
68.1% (72)
-17.8%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
53.2% (139)
-40.7%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Carter
Home
49.9% (389)
58.7% (455)
Away
46.8% (376)
60.0% (483)
By Period
Tkachuk
Carter
P1
44.4%
61.3%
P2
51.8%
57.1%
P3
47.8%
59.8%
OT
57.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.3%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2023 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2023 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:16 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:45 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |