Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.5% vs 57.8%). Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Tavares 57.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 67.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 77.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Tkachuk
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Tkachuk
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Tkachuk
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
58.0% (914)
-1.2%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
57.0% (235)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
57.9% (19)
+42.1%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Tavares
Home
50.4% (121)
57.8% (614)
Away
67.3% (113)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Tkachuk
Tavares
P1
57.1%
58.0%
P2
60.0%
56.9%
P3
58.3%
58.4%
OT
66.7%
57.7%
Final 5 min
55.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |