Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Tavares 54.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 90.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 70.9%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 61.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Tkachuk
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
11
(19 meetings)
8
11
Tkachuk
Tavares
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
8
2
Tkachuk
Tavares
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
9
Tkachuk
Tavares
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
54.0% (16,108)
-5.0%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
56.5% (4,283)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
50.6% (620)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Tkachuk shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Tavares
Home
50.7% (1,428)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Tkachuk
Tavares
P1
49.4%
55.0%
P2
51.3%
54.1%
P3
49.3%
54.1%
OT
57.1%
55.9%
Final 5 min
46.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 03:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |