Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Tkachuk wins 62.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Staal 54.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 54.7%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Tkachuk
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Tkachuk
Staal
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
9
1
Tkachuk
Staal
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
6
Tkachuk
Staal
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
56.1% (955)
+0.7%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
66.9% (142)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.0% (242)
+57.0%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +57.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Tkachuk shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Staal
Home
50.4% (121)
55.4% (663)
Away
67.3% (113)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Tkachuk
Staal
P1
57.1%
55.1%
P2
60.0%
54.7%
P3
58.3%
53.9%
OT
66.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |