Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Staal 55.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 13-13 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 92.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 92.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 50.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Tkachuk
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
13
(26 meetings)
13
13
Tkachuk
Staal
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
10
1
Tkachuk
Staal
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
9
Tkachuk
Staal
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Tkachuk
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
56.3% (1,115)
-8.8%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
61.2% (67)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
52.1% (292)
-39.6%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +39.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Staal
Home
49.9% (389)
58.3% (705)
Away
46.8% (376)
53.3% (769)
By Period
Tkachuk
Staal
P1
44.4%
54.5%
P2
51.8%
58.2%
P3
47.8%
54.1%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 07:58 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 09:02 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 3 | 01:23 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:26 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |