Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Staal 57.6% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 68.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 96.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 69.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Tkachuk
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Tkachuk
Staal
Last 9: Tkachuk 7-2 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
7
0
Tkachuk
Staal
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Tkachuk
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
58.9% (1,096)
-11.0%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
68.4% (57)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.8% (222)
-51.8%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +51.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Staal
Home
56.0% (175)
57.0% (646)
Away
49.8% (205)
59.1% (729)
By Period
Tkachuk
Staal
P1
55.0%
55.9%
P2
51.9%
55.4%
P3
47.3%
62.0%
OT
77.8%
70.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:38 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:37 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |