Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Eller 53.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 94.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 64.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Tkachuk
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Tkachuk
Eller
Last 7: Tkachuk 4-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Tkachuk
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Tkachuk
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
53.8% (865)
-6.3%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
57.1% (21)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
52.6% (137)
-40.1%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +40.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Tkachuk shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Eller
Home
49.9% (389)
56.4% (486)
Away
46.8% (376)
51.2% (537)
By Period
Tkachuk
Eller
P1
44.4%
55.1%
P2
51.8%
55.3%
P3
47.8%
51.7%
OT
57.1%
27.3%
Final 5 min
44.3%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 17:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 12:24 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:09 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |