Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.3%). Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 59.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Eller 52.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 92.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 53.1%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Tkachuk
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Tkachuk
Eller
Last 6: Tkachuk 3-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
1
Tkachuk
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Tkachuk
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
52.8% (742)
-4.9%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
67.6% (34)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
46.2% (156)
-46.2%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tkachuk is 59.6% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Tkachuk shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Eller
Home
56.0% (175)
54.5% (448)
Away
49.8% (205)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Tkachuk
Eller
P1
55.0%
52.8%
P2
51.9%
50.9%
P3
47.3%
53.4%
OT
77.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:42 | Defensive | Lars Eller |