Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs McLeod 63.0% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 84.1%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 67.1%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Tkachuk
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tkachuk
McLeod
Last 6: Tkachuk 2-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
4
Tkachuk
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
64.8% (509)
-16.9%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
68.4% (19)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
65.3% (124)
-65.3%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +65.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. McLeod is 66.7% vs left-shot opponents (496).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
McLeod
Home
56.0% (175)
64.3% (308)
Away
49.8% (205)
65.7% (344)
By Period
Tkachuk
McLeod
P1
55.0%
62.9%
P2
51.9%
64.8%
P3
47.3%
67.9%
OT
77.8%
37.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
66.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
65.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 15:43 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 01:38 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 07:25 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |