Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 56.0% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 90.1%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 73.3%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 59.8%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (139)
53.4% (770)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.6% (94)
46.2% (39)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.7% (141)
+55.3%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +55.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tkachuk is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Tkachuk shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Home
50.4% (121)
49.0% (429)
Away
67.3% (113)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
P1
57.1%
53.0%
P2
60.0%
51.1%
P3
58.3%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |