Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Tkachuk wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 53.8% vs Zibanejad 51.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 88.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 70.4%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 59.4%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (89)
53.8% (591)
+5.8%
Power Play
50.9% (57)
47.4% (38)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.6% (117)
+56.4%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +56.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tkachuk is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Tkachuk shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Home
52.9% (87)
48.2% (307)
Away
61.7% (60)
54.4% (439)
By Period
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
P1
61.0%
54.0%
P2
59.5%
51.0%
P3
52.4%
50.6%
OT
0.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
56.5%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |